The Forecast

American economist Fred Foldvary published an article in the American Journal of Economics and Sociology in 1997, warning readers that a major financial crisis would hit the world in 2008. He wrote the following:

‍“The 18-year cycle in the US and similar cycles in other countries gives the geo-Austrian cycle theory predictive power: the next major bust, 18 years after the 1990 downturn, will be around 2008, if there is no major interruption such as a global war.”

‍History proved him right. To everyone’s surprise, the world was hit by what is now known as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008. Foldvary, however, knew it would happen 11 years in advance.

‍This is the kind of foresight The Economic Navigator is designed to provide.

Theoretical Foundations

At the heart of this research lies what economist Fred Foldvary called the geo-Austrian synthesis — a framework that combines two types of economic thought: land economics and Austrian interest rate theory.

The land component builds on the classical foundations laid by Adam Smith and David Ricardo, but is most clearly advanced through the work of Henry George.

George’s contribution not only deepened our understanding of the role of land in economics, but also offered a solution to the recurring crises that plague market economies: the land value tax.

‍Unfortunately, the solution remains largely ignored by the mainstream.This strand of theory has since been developed further by economists such as Mason Gaffney, Fred Foldvary, Nicolaus Tideman, Fred Harrison, and Phil Anderson, among others.

The land side of the framework is heavily grounded in the research and insights these thinkers brought forward.The interest rate component is rooted in the Austrian School of Economics, particularly the work of Carl Menger, Eugen Böhm-Bawerk, and Ludwig von Mises.

Among them, Böhm-Bawerk is most widely regarded for his foundational contributions to interest rate theory, especially his analysis of time preference and capital.

Practical Application

Building on these theoretical foundations, the final layer of the framework applies timeless market principles that explain how price moves in real time.

At the heart of this view is the belief that markets operate according to three universal laws:

‍The Law of Supply and Demand – price responds to the ongoing balance between buying and selling pressure.

‍The Law of Cause and Effect – every market move is preceded by a measurable buildup or imbalance.

‍The Law of Effort vs. Result – volume, as effort, must align with price movement to confirm true market intent.

These laws are best understood through the work of W.D. Gann and R.D. Wyckoff, two of the most respected market technicians of the 20th century.

Their tools and insights provide a practical way to interpret these principles across all asset classes.

Notably, Gann also observed a recurring 18-year cycle in U.S. economic history—arriving at the same insight as land cycle theorists, though from an entirely different perspective.

This convergence of theory and practice reinforces the validity of the framework that underpins The Economic Navigator.